Thai SMEs face widening structural disadvantages in a K-shaped recovery: large firms have bounced back strongly with improved margins, while SME revenue growth has stalled or remained below pre-COVID levels despite modest recovery, with market share dropping from 18% to 15%. The critical insight is SME clustering in the "lower-right" quadrant—revenue growth without profit recovery—due to cost pressures they cannot pass to consumers. Emerging megatrends in digital/AI, green transition, and health tourism offer growth paths, but SMEs face headwinds from U.S. trade measures, lingering weak domestic consumption, and high-carbon sectors facing regulatory pressure.
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