The Thai household debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall to 84% by end of 2026, according to UTCC research assuming 2.5% GDP growth. However, total household debt will still increase from 16.3 trillion baht (Q4 2025) to 16.5 trillion baht (Q4 2026), driven by households with insufficient income and limited credit access reluctantly borrowing despite repayment concerns. The declining ratio masks persistent debt stress among vulnerable segments.