TISCO ESU warns that Thailand's combined public and household debt has reached 150% of GDP, with public debt at ~68% and household debt comprising the remainder. The government continues borrowing to support the economy. Thailand faces a "Japanification" scenario—low growth, persistent inflation, declining workforce—but risks aging faster than Japan while at half Japan's per-capita income (USD 20,700 vs 37,000). With birth rates below 2.0 and 14% of population already 65+, Thailand risks entering an aging society before achieving prosperity. The solution requires higher private investment (currently under 20% of GDP) and reducing import dependency for capital goods, which has risen from 11% to 14% of investment spending.
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