U.S. Operation Economic Outcast sanctions on Iran could drive crude oil prices to 100–110 USD/barrel (or beyond 110 if Hormuz Strait is closed), impacting Thai SMEs through energy import costs rising ~122 billion baht annually. This threatens 5–8% cost increases for fishing and transport sectors, and could boost overall Thai inflation to 3.2–3.8% and worsen the trade deficit by ~31%. The real risk depends on China's compliance with U.S. oil purchase restrictions and Iran's retaliatory shipping actions through the critical chokepoint.