Thailand's central bank (BOT) is expected to hold its policy rate steady at 1.00% at its August 26 meeting, according to consensus from major research houses (KResearch, Krungthai, and Krungsri). The decision reflects a balance between declining inflation pressure (July CPI at 1.95%) and a fragile, uneven economic recovery (Q2 GDP growth at 1.9%, below potential). The rate will likely remain at 1% throughout 2026 to support recovery while preserving policy flexibility for external risks. Key for SMEs: cautious credit environment continues; supply-side inflation risks (El Niño, high fertilizer prices) remain a tail risk into Q4.