Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been upgraded from 2% to 2.5% by UTCC, driven by export growth (up 17.8% in USD terms) and the global AI technology cycle. However, the recovery follows a "K-shaped" pattern: tech and large industries are expanding while traditional sectors, SMEs, and households face contraction. Key risks include high household debt (projected at 84.2% of GDP), weak domestic purchasing power, and external uncertainties including geopolitical tensions and El Niño-related rainfall impacts.