Thailand's rice export goal of 7 million tonnes in 2026 could be boosted by El Niño-driven supply constraints in competing countries, combined with reduced fertiliser usage globally due to high costs and Middle East conflict disruptions. However, Thailand's own El Niño exposure and loss of market share in Iraq (down from 1m to 90k tonnes) to Pakistan and others pose headwinds. First-half 2026 exports fell 18.2% to 3.28m tonnes; growth markets like South Africa and Malaysia offer some offset, but China exposure is weak.