Thailand's Ministry of Commerce is monitoring escalating US-Iran tensions following Trump's July 8 announcement that a ceasefire deal has ended, expecting upward pressure on global energy costs. While Thai upstream costs show clear impact (Q2 producer price index up 8.2%, transport costs up 11.1%), the government's energy price regulation mechanisms have kept H1 inflation at just 1.08%—within the 1-3% target. The ministry reassures that Thailand's managed energy prices and subsidy policies can absorb further shocks, though businesses are advised to optimize efficiency and explore alternative energy sources to maintain competitiveness.