Rising global oil prices threaten Thailand's economic recovery by increasing business costs, reducing household purchasing power, and dampening consumption—the economy's expected main growth engine. Thailand's Q2 growth fell to under 2% year-on-year. If crude prices exceed $100/barrel, renewed pressure could emerge. Investors should monitor core inflation, US interest rate expectations, and long-term bond yields, which have risen sharply and could further constrain borrowing costs for businesses and households. Cost-of-living pressures remain the biggest near-term concern.