Climate-driven shifts in international travel patterns are upending Japan's tourism business model. European tourists increasingly avoid summer heat, moving peak demand from June-August (Obon festival) to autumn-winter months. Airlines (ANA +32% Oct-Dec 2025 profit vs. summer's -22% YoY decline, JAL +19%) and railways now see autumn-winter as more profitable than summer. Hotel rates have flipped: Oct-Dec 2025 rates now ~2,800 yen higher than Jul-Sep, versus only 90 yen higher in 2019. Regional labor shortages are emerging as seasonal workers traditionally filled summer peak roles. Thai tourists, accustomed to late-year Japan trips, will face increased crowding.