KKP Research upgraded Thailand's 2026 GDP forecast to 2.5% (from 2.1%), driven by AI investment and strong tourism, but warns of widening K-Shape divergence: emerging AI/electronics sectors boom while traditional industries (automotive, petrochemicals) and SMEs struggle. Three critical policy gaps identified: (1) upgrading domestic manufacturing value chains beyond assembly; (2) ensuring foreign investment generates local wealth (not just profit repatriation); (3) conditioning infrastructure incentives on clean energy and sustainable resource use. Policymakers should monitor the 400-billion-baht fiscal stimulus and US trade negotiations.
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