Thailand's bilateral trade with the U.S. surged 72% in H1 2026—the highest in 36 years—driven by supply chain rebalancing away from China. However, rising policy uncertainty looms: Trump administration tariffs under IEEPA (averaging 8-10%, reduced to 5.5% after court ruling) and potential Section 301 measures targeting Thailand as one of 16 countries with excess production capacity pose risks. U.S. exports to Thailand also grew 30%, indicating two-way momentum, but unpredictability around trade enforcement remains a cost for investors.