CIMB Thailand's chief economist warns that global interest rates will remain elevated longer than expected following the Fed's first rate hike in 3 years (25 bps to 4%). Four key risks for Thai SMEs and investors: (1) inflation still not controlled—Fed likely to hike again in Oct/Dec, potentially reaching 4.75% by mid-2026; (2) bond yields surging, 10-year US treasuries could hit 5.3%, dragging regional bonds up; (3) baht weakening risk to 34 THB/USD amid higher US rates and oil above $100/barrel; (4) Bank of Thailand may be forced to raise rates in 2026 despite slower Thai economic recovery. Investors must guard against interest-rate and currency volatility.