US inflation remained flat at 3.4% year-over-year in August, showing minimal progress toward the Fed's 2% target amid pressures from Middle East tensions, tariffs, and data center expansion. KResearch expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50-3.75% at the 15-16 September FOMC meeting, but signals clearer indications of future rate hikes if inflation pressures persist. Rising oil prices and sticky core inflation are key risks, though the decision faces political pressure from Trump ahead of midterm elections.