Thailand's 2026 economic growth forecast remains at 2% with H2 expected to decelerate to 1.7% amid weak private consumption and sluggish exports. SME lending contracted sharply (-5.6% in Q2) while large business credit grew 5.6%. Banks face a "debt cycle" trap: 19% of restructured debts revert to NPL status within a year due to poor business recovery, pushing NPL ratios toward 2.8–3% by year-end. Rising global bond yields further strain corporate fundraising for lower-rated firms.