A Thai investment analysis argues that Middle East oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to resolve soon. Current market stabilization relies on temporary fixes (US strategic reserves, Chinese reduced imports, alternative shipping routes) rather than structural solutions. With ongoing Houthi attacks on tankers and US-Iran tensions unresolved, research houses are shifting to a "new normal" scenario of prolonged disruption. Fair-value oil is estimated at $100–110/bbl short-term, with upside risk from geopolitical premium. The author recommends overweighting energy assets, though short-term US political pressure (mid-term elections) may cap crude price rallies.