Kasikornbank's Research Center maintains Thailand's 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2.0%, predicting H2 slowdown due to export weakness despite H1 momentum. While Q3 benefits from the "Thai Help Thai Plus" stimulus supporting consumption, the center flags rising risks from Middle East tensions, El Niño, and US trade uncertainty that could accelerate inflation in Q4. Private investment from FDI may expand, but rising capital imports could dampen GDP gains and weaken the trade balance.