Thailand's food & beverage market is forecast to reach 682 billion baht in 2026 (3.9% growth), but the expansion masks underlying fragility. Growth is largely driven by short-term government stimulus (Thai Help Thai Plus, June–September 2026) and price inflation (10–15% higher than pre-Middle East conflict levels), not genuine purchasing power. The sector shows classic "easy entry, quick exit" dynamics: 3,263 new F&B registrations in the first eight months (up 20%), but 491 closures (11%). Competition is intensifying from over 700,000 restaurants nationwide and substitute products (ready-to-eat, convenience-store cafes). While revenue expands, net margins compress due to high fixed costs (ingredients 40–50% of costs) and price-sensitive consumers. Street food leads growth at 5.8%, but full-service restaurants struggle at 1.8%. SME operators face a critical challenge in 2027 when stimulus ends and costs remain elevated—the research argues survival depends on differentiation, not price-cutting.