China's massive export surplus—growing over 20% in early 2026 while global trade grows only 3%—is overwhelming global markets, triggering protectionist responses from the US and EU. As China's export-driven growth model exhausts available demand, overcapacity and trade barriers threaten both China's domestic stability (zombie companies, bank losses, local government revenue collapse) and commodity-dependent developing economies. Thailand's export-oriented SMEs should monitor escalating trade tensions and consider diversifying supply chains beyond China-reliant models.