The Thai baht weakened to 33.8 THB/USD in July—its worst level in over a year—before recovering to 33.0 THB/USD in early August as US Fed signaled less hawkish policy and US economic data cooled. However, Thailand faces persistent headwinds: a current account deficit driven by high energy imports amid Middle East tensions, weak tourism recovery, and a structural fiscal deficit. Late Q3 seasonal factors (September typically sees dollar strength) and risks from Fed policy reassessment at Jackson Hole could reignite baht pressure. Kasikornbank forecasts 33.80 THB/USD by end-2026.