Thailand's headline inflation reached 2.53% YoY in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion, driven by elevated oil prices (Middle East tensions and sanctions), rising processed food prices (partly boosted by the Thai aid stimulus), and weather-related fresh produce supply constraints. Core CPI also accelerated to 1.44% YoY. The Commerce Ministry forecasts full-year inflation at 1.81% but warns of an 81% probability of severe El Niño intensifying in Q4 2025, which could sharply lift food and livestock price inflation. Currency and fiscal headwinds remain monitored; the Thai aid-plus stimulus ending in September is expected to provide modest relief.