Krung Thai Research forecasts Thailand's central bank will maintain the policy rate at 1.00% on August 26 to support economic recovery. However, SME credit contracted for a fourth consecutive year (-4.6% YoY) and consumer credit fell for a third year (-0.6%), reflecting persistent financial stress among smaller businesses and households despite large corporate credit growing 6.6%. The bank expects this accommodative stance to continue given subdued economic recovery below potential. Globally, Middle East tensions remain elevated after failed US-Iran negotiations, with oil price risks and US fiscal challenges creating headwinds.