SCB EIC maintains Thailand's 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2.2% (and 2.1% for 2027) but warns of an intensifying K-shaped recovery: AI investment and electronics exports benefits concentrate among large corporates and major industries, while SMEs and low-income households struggle with high debt, limited credit access, and fragile incomes. Export-led growth relies heavily on imports with weak domestic linkages, limiting trickle-down effects. Risks include Middle East tensions, US trade barriers, and El Niño pressures on vulnerable segments.